David Armano, Dachis Group, recently wrote a post on the Harvard blog, Conversation Starter predicting the social media trends for 2010. In short, according to Armano, social media in 2010 will get even more popular, more mobile, and more exclusive. And this is why:

1. Social media begins to look less social
Armano writes; “With groups, lists and niche networks becoming more popular, networks could begin to feel more “exclusive.”

This is the social media natural selection. With the existing overload of information, people start looking for specific content in specific channels such as branch communities.

“The bottom line is that users are willing to pay for social network content as long as sites cater to specific market niches as opposed to broader, mainstream audiences,” according to eMarketer.

2. Corporations look to scale
Armano predicts corporations will begin to incorporate social media initiatives on a larger scale, moving beyond their one-off marketing experiments and general communication activity.

When companies realize that social media can help them get more efficient when it comes to brand building activities, customer relations, information searching and news monitoring  and customer support, there will be an attitude change and instead of limiting access to different social media channels, they will encourage it instead.

According to the Social Media examiner, research supports this prediction. For example, 94% of companies sponsoring online communities plan to increase their social networking support as well as engage with other social media tools, according to the 2009 Tribalization of Business Study by Deloitte.

3. Social business becomes serious play
Armano predicts companies will use entertainment, especially in the form of games, in their social media activities in order to incentivize the users. Just look at how popular FarmVille on Facebook has grown – not to say the least here at our office

Here is more proof from Social Media Examiner to support the prediction:
Games rank #1 in top-performing mobile applications, followed by social networking apps, according to a recent report by Distimo. Games and networking are often closely related in many social media environments.

A great example of this emerging trend:  Volkswagen recently went 100% mobile for their GTI launch and created a virtual game via the Apple App Store.  It includes a chance to compete to win one of six limited-edition 2010 GTIs.  This is a great example of social media “game” marketing—and relates to trend #5.

4. Your company will have a social media policy (and it might actually be enforced)
Armano writes “ If the company you work for doesn’t already have a social media policy in place with specific rules of engagement across multiple networks, it just might in the next year. From how to conduct yourself as an employee to what’s considered competition, it’s likely that you’ll see something formalized about how the company views social media and your participation in it.”

Hopefully, your company’s social media policy will be inspirational rather than a bunch of restrictions.

5. Mobile becomes a social media lifeline
Armano predicts “With approximately 70 percent of organizations banning social networks and, simultaneously, sales of smartphones on the rise, it’s likely that employees will seek to feed their social media addictions on their mobile devices.”

Using the mobile to post tweets during seminars and events is perfect as well as taking notes for blog posts while on the run and following up your news feed on Facebook. A computer isn’t always the primary Internet access device anymore. This is even more true in the developing countries where the number one Internet access device is a mobile phone.

6. Sharing no longer means e-mail
Armano predicts that users will choose to share information on their social networks rather than via e-mail. For instance, he mentions that The New York Times iPhone application recently added sharing functionality which allows a user to easily broadcast an article across networks such as Facebook and Twitter. And Netoptions’ e-newsletter tool, BizWizard offers the possibility to share content in an e-newsletter via different social networks.

The use of social intranets to share information will also help limiting the number of  “all”-e-mails in our inboxes.

I think David Armano is definitely on the right track. However, now that companies have become aware of both the possibilities and limitations of social media, they will become more careful and reflective before engaging in social media activities. Therefore, my personal bet is on using social media as tools for information searching and news monitoring. I also think that the benefits of using social media as customer service are easy to measure and understand and will therefore be very popular.

The good thing about trend predictions is that most people only read them when the future is yet to come, and do not go back to them to see if the forecasts were correct. With 2010 not being that far away, I hope you will only remember the predictions that actually came true. If not, I’ll blame Armano and his crystal ball.
/ylva.

Social intranets are all about making the company’s collective intelligence accessible. Having information easily searchable, accessible and updatable can save companies time and money. However, it’s important to recognize that this revolution not only is technical, it’s also cultural. Management needs to encourage and endorse this new way of communicating. If the company succeeds in turning the work place into a social meeting place interesting stuff will start happening.

Cordovan helped Elektronikgruppen, to set up a social intranet à la FaceBook. The same day that the intranet was launched, 82 out of 120 employees registered within the first 2 hours, which showed a huge interest and engagement for this new way of communicating.

Already in 2006, Dion Hinchcliffe listed on his ZDNet blog, six key properties of Enterprise 2.0:
1. Free form – Minimal structure with simple lists, tags, and microformats at first, with more structure later.
2. Zero training/simple – Any barrier to use means that automatically fewer people will use it. Your business systems can and should be similarly effortless to use.
3. Software as a service – Online software is the most productive and useful software possible. Installed native software just cannot compete with such persistent availability.
4. Easily changed – If a user can’t easily make the necessary change to a system, he or she must have an expert – usually in the IT department – to do it, and get in line to wait for it, not to mention pay for it. This simply won’t do.
5. Unintended uses – Preconceived notions about how an IT system will be used can cut it off from the most valuable uses down the road… It’s all about letting the structure and behavior of IT systems emerge naturally and organically.
6. Social – Enterprise 2.0 enables just-in-time, freeform collaboration as well as capturing and publishing the results to be reused and leveraged afterwards by others. Wikis combined with enterprise search do all this automatically for example.

Finally, as James Surowiecki wrote in The Wisdom of Crowds; Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant – better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.
/ylva.